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PMJT: The First 100 Days

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Edward Campbell

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If Prime Minister Harper is re-elected (even if he doesn't face parliament for several weeks) this may not be a big problem, but Col (Ret'd) George Petrolekas, of the CGAI and CDAI argues, in this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail, that foreign affairs, broadly defined as the G20, APEC, the Commonwealth and COP 21, will pre-occupy the prime minister for the first 100 days of his government:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/for-the-next-prime-minister-international-issues-will-define-first-90-days/article26850834/
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For the next prime minister, international issues will define first 90 days

GEORGE PETROLEKAS
Contributed to The Globe and Mail

Published Monday, Oct. 19, 2015

Federal party leaders have outlined actions for their first days in power. Many deal with international trade and defence relationships which will be tested in earnest in the first three months of power.

Any victor in a minority Parliament will be dependent on another party to secure the confidence of the House. To achieve this, accords reached by necessity may very well affect how domestic politics play out on the international stage.

Will parliamentary support be contingent on renegotiating the Trans-Pacific Partnership, protecting supply management or a promise to withdraw from the military aspects of the anti-Islamic State coalition?

A new government will be negotiating these policies, while trying to form government and being briefed by the civil service.

Unlike the United States, which has a transition period before the inauguration of a new president, in Canada convention is that transfer of power occurs within days or a week or two, meaning a new government may not be sworn in, let alone begin to briefed by the public service, until the first week of November.

All parties have an idea of who would occupy key portfolios but won’t know who survived the election until Oct 20. Ministers will lose, star candidates may not be elected and the cabinet must be balanced by regional and gender representation.

Ministerial policy advisers must be named and an entirely new Prime Minister’s Office staffed, which will have to refine policy while discovering how government works.

Yet the prime minister-designate will have to attend three major international conferences in the first six weeks of power while the government is set.

The week of Nov. 7 is the G20 meeting in Turkey, which will undoubtably be influenced by the recent terror attack in Ankara, and where Islamist financing is on the agenda. Undoubtably, the refugee crisis will also be discussed. It will be the first major international conference since the Russian incursion in Syria – what is discussed off the agenda will be as important as what is on the agenda.

Key allies, and even antagonists, will ask for bilateral meetings to gauge the new Prime Minister’s character, or to divine what policy promises truly mean, e.g., what does quitting the military campaign against IS truly mean – certainly the U.S. would want to discuss this.

The APEC conference in Manila follows a week later on Pacific economic and energy issues. Many of the TPP partner nations are members and would wish to know if the accord is threatened and where initiatives like the Northern Gateway pipeline stand. Chinese actions in the South China Sea will form a backdrop, especially as the U.S. and China have been exchanging pointed barbs on freedom of navigation lately, and the TPP is seen by some as an economic containment of China. Subjects that the Prime Minister will have little time to prepare for. If Canadian hostages are still being held by terrorists in the Philippines, this would introduce another dimension for the PM.

A week after APEC is the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Malta on Nov. 27-29. With the Queen attending this meeting, Canada would be hard-pressed to pass, having skipped the last one in Sri Lanka. Commonwealth meetings are generally not weighty, but commitments to increasing foreign aid and reverting to peacekeeping will certainly be tested, given the number of African nations present.

Immediately thereafter will be the COP 21 conference in Paris (the UN conference on climate change). Climate change, greenhouse-gas emissions, the proposed transformation from a carbon economy have been key issues for both opposition parties – to change what they’ve called “Canada’s perception as a laggard.” The public service will have had little time to convert promises to potential policy, so COP 21 promises to be a platform of Canadian intent as opposed to binding commitments.

This bring us to the second week of December. It might be possible for a Speech from the Throne to occur before the traditional parliamentary break in mid-December, but in all likelihood Canadians won’t see the specifics of what any new government will wish to accomplish, and a budget date, until mid-January, only then knowing whether we’ll have a winter election or not.

Such is the reality of governing.

If there is to be a change of government then the incoming prime minister (M Trudeau, presumably) will have a transition team consisting of political professionals, including former ministers, retired senior public servants and party insiders; it may not be as formal or as lengthy a process and is seen in the USA but it will be effective. Those civil service briefings will come thick and fast, as needed ... briefing books are being prepared right this moment, for whomever comes into office.

- mod edit to clarify thread title -
 
Wow! Talk about a wake up call for Canadians when we cross the post election Start Line.
 
This is a useful check list, thanks dapaterson:


dapaterson said:
So, a few links and quotes about the Liberal Party's military commitments:


https://www.liberal.ca/realchange/report-on-transformation/

We will implement the recommendations made in the Canadian Forces’ Report on Transformation.

The Canadian Armed Forces’ ability to protect Canada’s borders and work with our allies overseas should never be compromised. Threats to its ability to meet future obligations must be addressed head on.

The Report on Transformation made a series of recommendations on how to build a more modern, efficient, and effective military, including reducing the size of administration within government and the Canadian Armed Forces in order to strengthen front-line operations.


https://www.liberal.ca/realchange/investing-in-our-military/

We will maintain current National Defence spending levels, including current planned increases.

Under Stephen Harper, investments in the Canadian Armed Forces have been erratic, promised increases in funding have been scaled back, and more than $10 billion of approved funding was left unspent.

This mismanagement has left Canada’s Armed Forces underfunded and ill-equipped, and the courageous members of the Forces unsupported after years of dedicated service.

We will not let Canada’s Armed Forces be shortchanged, and we will not lapse military spending from year to year. We will also reinvest in building a leaner, more agile, better-equipped military, including adequate support systems for military personnel and their families.


https://www.liberal.ca/realchange/strategic-priorities/

We will immediately begin an open and transparent review process of existing defence capabilities, with the goal of delivering a more effective, better-equipped military.

The Canada First Defence Strategy, launched by Stephen Harper in 2008, is underfunded and out of date. We will review current programs and capabilities, and lay out a realistic plan to strengthen Canada’s Armed Forces.

We will develop the Canadian Armed Forces into an agile, responsive, and well-equipped military force that can effectively defend Canada and North America; provide support during natural disasters, humanitarian support missions, and peace operations; and offer international deterrence and combat capability.

We will continue to work with the United States to defend North America under NORAD, and contribute to regional security within the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

We will ensure that equipment is acquired faster, and with vigorous Parliamentary oversight.

We will put a renewed focus on surveillance and control of Canadian territory and approaches, particularly our Arctic regions, and will increase the size of the Canadian Rangers.


EDIT: See also: https://www.liberal.ca/files/2015/09/A-new-plan-to-strengthen-the-economy-and-create-jobs-with-navy-investment.pdf
 
E.R. Campbell said:
If Prime Minister Harper is re-elected (even if he doesn't face parliament for several weeks) this may not be a big problem, but Col (Ret'd) George Petrolekas, of the CGAI and CDAI argues, in this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail, that foreign affairs, broadly defined as the G20, APEC, the Commonwealth and COP 21, will pre-occupy the prime minister for the first 100 days of his government:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/for-the-next-prime-minister-international-issues-will-define-first-90-days/article26850834/
... the incoming prime minister (M Trudeau, presumably) will have a transition team consisting of political professionals, including former ministers, retired senior public servants and party insiders; it may not be as formal or as lengthy a process and is seen in the USA but it will be effective. Those civil service briefings will come thick and fast, as needed ... briefing books are being prepared right this moment, for whomever comes into office.


And it has been announced that Peter Harder a former deputy minister at DFAIT and a senior advisor to the Mulroney, Chrétien and Harper governments, will head M Trudeau's transition team.

                                 
Harder.jpg

                                                Peter Harder
 
E.R. Campbell said:
And it has been announced that Peter Harder a former deputy minister at DFAIT and a senior advisor to the Mulroney, Chrétien and Harper governments, will head M Trudeau's transition team.

                                 
Harder.jpg

                                                Peter Harder

So when they start jockeying for position, all you'll here coming from behind the closed door is:

"Give it to me, Harder". :)
 
DFIAT has been a pain for people trying to collect military vehicles and other stuff, very risk adverse. I expect that within a year they will make their move to punish gun owners for being uppity.
 
I worked with them (DFAIT) in the sandbox, on various projects. To say that they sucked the life out of me would be an understatement.
 
recceguy said:
I worked with them (DFAIT) in the sandbox, on various projects. To say that they sucked the life out of me would be an understatement.

They sucked the life out me in late 70's when trying to work along side them as DREE (Dept of Regional Economic Expansion) as well.
 
Jed said:
They sucked the life out me in late 70's when trying to work along side them as DREE (Dept of Regional Economic Expansion) as well.

Had to rewrite complete project analysis' because the word manhours was used instead of personhours. Then wait another week or two for a new review, even though nothing else was changed.

It didn't take long to realize though, that things went better if I brought a fruit basket, made up at the mess hall, to the meetings. ;)
 
Peter Harder is a classic Mandarin, he is super smart and hard working, very focused ... a quick study, even when faced with an entirely new, foreign, technical matter. I have met him a few times ~ for work, at a couple of conferences and, once or twice, socially ~ I also found him friendly and helpful to a relatively junior newcomer the edges of the upper echelons.

In addition to being a Mandarin, in Ottawa, Mr Harder has also been a Sherpa, one of those senior officials who go to the "summits" (like the G7) before the world leaders arrive and helps draft the final communiqué a few days before the meeting even starts.

M Trudeau will, I believe, be very well served. Mr Harder's a good choice to lead the transition.
 
I'm very curious to see how Harjit Sajjan will be employed, he should be a shoe-in for fast elevation to cabinet, and his pedigree is impressive. Eleven year police officer in Vancouver South specializing in gangs, CO of a reserve regiment with 4 tours, an OMM, MSM, MID, and a ton of intelligence experience overseas. First generation naturalized Canadian, married to a doctor, strong ties in Vancouver's Sikh community...

https://harjitsajjan.liberal.ca/biography/
 
Reports are now surfacing that Prime Minister designate Trudeau will announce his cabinet on Wed, 4 Nov 15.

That gives him two weeks to consult/invite/balance, etc.

(For info: Prime Minister Stephen Harper and the ministers, no matter if re-elected or not, continue to serve until the very minute that the new cabinet is sworn.)
 
E.R. Campbell said:
Reports are now surfacing that Prime Minister designate Trudeau will announce his cabinet on Wed, 4 Nov 15.

That gives him two weeks to consult/invite/balance, etc.

(For info: Prime Minister Stephen Harper and the ministers, no matter if re-elected or not, continue to serve until the very minute that the new cabinet is sworn.)

confirmed in the press conference currently underway at 1500 mountain time
 
Apparently the first qualification for cabinet will be anatomy, not ability.
 
ModlrMike said:
Apparently the first qualification for cabinet will be anatomy, not ability.

There will be a cabinet of 25 - that means they need 12 women out of 50.  It shouldn't be that hard.
 
One will almost certainly be Chrystia Freeland, who is being suggested as a potential finance minister.

Also on anyone's short list: Judy Sgro, Joyce Murray (the current defence critic and, therefore a candidate for the MND's job), Carolyn Bennett, Judy Foote and newcomer Catherine McKenna who knocked off NDP heavyweight Paul Dewar in Ottawa.


Edited to add: And don't forget Hedy Fry.
 
The Globe and Mail's staff takes a look at the factors that go into 'cabinet making' in Ottawa, in this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from that newspaper:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/factors-trudeau-will-consider-when-choosing-his-cabinet/article26899467/
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Factors Trudeau will consider when choosing his cabinet

STAFF
The Globe and Mail

Published Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2015

One of Justin Trudeau’s first orders of business is to assemble the team that will help him manage the federal government. To construct this cabinet, the prime-minister-designate must select two or three dozen of the 184 Liberal MPs elected Monday night. These are the few considerations Mr. Trudeau will take into account.

Former ministers

There are still a few members of cabinet around from the federal Liberal governments of 1993 to 2006, mostly from the Paul Martin era. These include former finance minister Ralph Goodale of Saskatchewan, former Liberal leader Stéphane Dion of Quebec, former public works minister Scott Brison of Nova Scotia, former fisheries minister Geoff Regan of Nova Scotia, former national revenue minister John McCallum of Ontario and former immigration minister Judy Sgro; former junior ministers of that era include Carolyn Bennett, Mauril Bélanger and Hedy Fry.

There are also those who served in provincial cabinets, such as British Columbia’s Joyce Murray, or Judy Foote and Yvonne Jones of Newfoundland and Labrador.

Regional considerations

Regional representation is vital in a Canadian cabinet. Mr. Trudeau will be particularly anxious to ensure strong representation from Quebec, where the Liberals expanded their base, and the West, where the Liberals are relatively weak.

In Montreal, former mayoral candidate Mélanie Joly, who headed the Quebec advisory committee for Mr. Trudeau’s leadership campaign, is a shoo-in. Other possibilities in the area include Anju Dhillon, a Sikh lawyer, and Emmanuel Dubourg, a former member of Quebec’s National Assembly.

Any Liberal elected in a Prairie province is a strong contender for cabinet. One prominent Liberal candidate in the region is Jim Carr, a former provincial MLA and president of the Business Council of Manitoba. Another is Kent Hehr, a lawyer and former Liberal MLA who won in Calgary Centre. Mr. Hehr, who was left paralyzed in 1971 in a drive-by shooting, has been a prominent advocate for the rights of the disabled.

In British Columbia, contenders include Pamela Goldsmith-Jones, the former mayor of West Vancouver, Harjit Sajjan, a former police officer who did four tours of duty for the Canadian Forces, and Sukh Dhaliwal, a businessman and former MP.

There is also Dominic LeBlanc, the veteran MP from New Brunswick, who is a close friend of Mr. Trudeau’s and will certainly be in cabinet, and Hunter Tootoo, a former Speaker of the Nunavut Legislative Assembly.

Experience

The new Liberal caucus includes many Canadians who were elected (or re-elected) to Parliament after distinguished careers. Those MPs include former astronaut Marc Garneau; former Toronto police chief Bill Blair; Jody Wilson-Raybould, a former Crown attorney and senior figure in the B.C. Assembly of First Nations; business executive Bill Morneau from Toronto Centre; journalist and Trudeau adviser Chrystia Freeland; and former Canadian Forces lieutenant-general Andrew Leslie in Ottawa.
 
Brihard said:
I'm very curious to see how Harjit Sajjan will be employed, he should be a shoe-in for fast elevation to cabinet, and his pedigree is impressive. Eleven year police officer in Vancouver South specializing in gangs, CO of a reserve regiment with 4 tours, an OMM, MSM, MID, and a ton of intelligence experience overseas. First generation naturalized Canadian, married to a doctor, strong ties in Vancouver's Sikh community...

https://harjitsajjan.liberal.ca/biography/

Your making the classic mistake of judging a person based on demonstrated competence and ability. In the progressive/Liberal worldview what counts will be things like gender & ethnic background, followed by geography. And if Gerald Butts thinks he is a malleable tool for the job.

There will be lots of very talented & deserving people overlooked because the don't fit a tick in the box. 
 
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