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Justin Trudeau hints at boosting Canada’s military spending

Justin Trudeau hints at boosting Canada’s military spending

Canada says it will look at increasing its defence spending and tacked on 10 more Russian names to an ever growing sanctions list.

By Tonda MacCharles
Ottawa Bureau
Mon., March 7, 2022

Riga, LATVIA—On the 13th day of the brutal Russian bid to claim Ukraine as its own, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is showing up at the Latvian battle group led by Canadian soldiers, waving the Maple Leaf and a vague hint at more money for the military.

Canada has been waving the NATO flag for nearly seven years in Latvia as a bulwark against Russia’s further incursions in Eastern Europe.

Canada stepped up to lead one of NATO’s four battle groups in 2015 — part of the defensive alliance’s display of strength and solidarity with weaker member states after Russia invaded Ukraine and seized the Crimean peninsula in 2014. Trudeau arrived in the Latvian capital late Monday after meetings in the U.K. with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte.

Earlier Monday, faced with a seemingly unstoppable war in Ukraine, Trudeau said he will look at increasing Canada’s defence spending. Given world events, he said there are “certainly reflections to have.”

And Canada tacked on 10 more Russian names to an ever-growing sanctions list.

The latest round of sanctions includes names Trudeau said were identified by jailed Russian opposition leader and Putin nemesis Alexei Navalny.

However, on a day when Trudeau cited the new sanctions, and Johnson touted new measures meant to expose Russian property owners in his country, Rutte admitted sanctions are not working.

Yet they all called for more concerted international efforts over the long haul, including more economic measures and more humanitarian aid, with Johnson and Rutte divided over how quickly countries need to get off Russian oil and gas.

The 10 latest names on Canada’s target list do not include Roman Abramovich — a Russian billionaire Navalny has been flagging to Canada since at least 2017. Canada appears to have sanctioned about 20 of the 35 names on Navalny’s list.

The Conservative opposition says the Liberal government is not yet exerting maximum pressure on Putin, and should do more to bolster Canadian Forces, including by finally approving the purchase of fighter jets.

Foreign affairs critic Michael Chong said in an interview that Ottawa must still sanction “additional oligarchs close to President Putin who have significant assets in Canada.”

Abramovich owns more than a quarter of the public shares in steelmaking giant Evraz, which has operations in Alberta and Saskatchewan and has supplied most of the steel for the government-owned Trans Mountain pipeline project.

Evraz’s board of directors also includes two more Russians the U.S. government identified as “oligarchs” in 2019 — Aleksandr Abramov and Aleksandr Frolov — and its Canadian operations have received significant support from the federal government.

That includes at least $27 million in emergency wage subsidies during the pandemic, as well as $7 million through a fund meant to help heavy-polluters reduce emissions that cause climate change, according to the company’s most recent annual report.

In addition to upping defence spending, the Conservatives want NORAD’s early warning system upgraded, naval shipbuilding ramped up and Arctic security bolstered.

In London, Johnson sat down with Trudeau and Rutte at the Northolt airbase. Their morning meetings had a rushed feel, with Johnson starting to usher press out before Trudeau spoke. His office said later that the British PM couldn’t squeeze the full meeting in at 10 Downing Street because Johnson’s “diary” was so busy that day. The three leaders held an afternoon news conference at 10 Downing.

But before that Trudeau met with the Queen, saying she was “insightful” and they had a “useful, for me anyway, conversation about global affairs.”

Trudeau meets with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg Tuesday in Latvia.

The prime minister will also meet with three Baltic leaders, the prime ministers of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, in the Latvian capital of Riga.

The Liberals announced they would increase the 500 Canadian Forces in Latvia by another 460 troops. The Canadians are leading a multinational battle group, one of four that are part of NATO’s deployments in the region.

Another 3,400 Canadians could be deployed to the region in the months to come, on standby for NATO orders.

But Canada’s shipments of lethal aid to Ukraine were slow to come in the view of the Conservatives, and the Ukrainian Canadian community.

And suddenly Western allies are eyeing each other’s defence commitments.

At the Downing Street news conference, Rutte noted the Netherlands will increase its defence budget to close to two per cent of GDP. Germany has led the G7, and doubled its defence budget in the face of Putin’s invasion and threats. Johnson said the U.K. defence spending is about 2.4 per cent and declined to comment on Canada’s defence spending which is 1.4 per cent of GDP.

But Johnson didn’t hold back.

“What we can’t do, post the invasion of Ukraine is assume that we go back to a kind of status quo ante, a kind of new normalization in the way that we did after the … seizure of Crimea and the Donbas area,” Johnson said. “We’ve got to recognize that things have changed and that we need a new focus on security and I think that that is kind of increasingly understood by everybody.”

Trudeau stood by his British and Dutch counterparts and pledged Canada would do more.

He defended his government’s record, saying Ottawa is gradually increasing spending over the next decade by 70 per cent. Then Trudeau admitted more might be necessary.

“We also recognize that context is changing rapidly around the world and we need to make sure that women and men have certainty and our forces have all the equipment necessary to be able to stand strongly as we always have. As members of NATO. We will continue to look at what more we can do.”

The three leaders — Johnson, a conservative and Trudeau and Rutte, progressive liberals — in a joint statement said they “will continue to impose severe costs on Russia.”

Arriving for the news conference from Windsor Castle, Trudeau had to detour to enter Downing Street as loud so-called Freedom Convoy protesters bellowed from outside the gate. They carried signs marked “Tuck Frudeau” and “Free Tamara” (Lich).

Protester Jeff Wyatt who said he has no Canadian ties told the Star he came to stand up for Lich and others who were leading a “peaceful protest” worldwide against government “lies” about COVID-19 and what he called Trudeau’s “tyranny.”

Elsewhere in London, outside the Russian embassy, other protesters and passersby reflected on what they said was real tyranny — the Russian attack on Ukraine. “I think we should be as tough as possible to get this stopped, as tough as possible,” said protester Clive Martinez.
 

daftandbarmy

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Most Canadians would gladly have businesses have to pay more in US tariffs. It won't directly affect them and most importantly it can all be blamed on the "evil" Americans. Do not underestimate the power of Canadians to feel smug. Canadian's smug and "better" than Americans feelings is probably the largest national ethos we have as a country. The Liberals have built their party around it.

Not when the businesses pass on the costs to them.
 

Kirkhill

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Exports to the United States represented 71.8% of Canada's exports to the world in 2020, down from 74.6% in 2019
  • Canada was the United States' 3rd largest supplier of goods imports in 2019.
  • U.S. goods imports from Canada totaled $319.4 billion in 2019, up 0.3% ($906 million) from 2018, and up 41.2% from 2009. U.S. imports from Canada are up 187% from 1993 (pre-NAFTA). U.S. imports from Canada account for 12.8% of overall U.S. imports in 2019.
  • Canada was the United States' largest goods export market in 2019.
  • U.S. goods exports to Canada in 2019 were $292.7 billion, down 2.4% ($7.1 billion) from 2018 but up 43.0% from 2009. U.S. exports to Canada are up 191% from 1993 (pre-NAFTA). U.S. exports to Canada account for 18% of overall U.S. exports in 2019.



The US market is worth 319 BUSD to us each year or about 20% of our 1643 BUSD GDP
That market represents 72% of our total market.
We turn a profit on that trade of 25 BUSD each year or about 1.5% of our GDP

Or our entire defence Budget,
half of which goes to hire Canadians to defend Canada.

To ensure access to that market the US is asking that Canada add 0.5% of GDP to the defence budget and make the Americans feel that they are more secure in their own homes.

That equates to a 30% tax on our profits from trade with the US

Or

That equates to a 2.5% tariff on all the exports we supply to the US.


We can spend the money and preserve a modicum of our self-worth as a sovereign state.

Or

The US will do what it feels it needs to do and send us the bill.
 

Spencer100

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Not when the businesses pass on the costs to them.
Not really. The public doesn't put the two together. Are high fuel prices hurting the Liberals and Trudeau? I would say no. There is very little call to lower the gas taxes. Just in some quarters.

Use the Dairy industry in this country. Canadians ware high priced dairy as a badge of honour. Look at the last trade talks the US was in doing the average Canadian a favour but trying to get the supply management system dismantled. But how many times did you see we have to save the Canadian Dairy?
 

SupersonicMax

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And Burkino Faso isn’t PART of AFRICOM, but it is in AFRICOM’s AOR.

For your NORTHCOM non-analogy, we have LOs in NORTHCOM, so at least technically there are some CAF members seconded to NORTHCOM, and thus, some of Canada is “part of” NORTHCOM.
That distinction between NORTHCOM and NORAD is important. We may have LOs embedded but we’re not part of NORTHCOM. For example, the ABM program resides within NORTHCOM and not NORAD precisely because we’re not part of NORTHCOM.

We have an exchange at VFA-125. It doesn’t make us (the greater CAF) part of VFA-125.
 

Kirkhill

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Not really. The public doesn't put the two together. Are high fuel prices hurting the Liberals and Trudeau? I would say no. There is very little call to lower the gas taxes. Just in some quarters.

Use the Dairy industry in this country. Canadians ware high priced dairy as a badge of honour. Look at the last trade talks the US was in doing the average Canadian a favour but trying to get the supply management system dismantled. But how many times did you see we have to save the Canadian Dairy?

And when you consider that the debate is over a 30% increase in the Defence Budget or a 2.5% increase in tariffs on exports to the US I fear that Spencer is right.

2.5% on 20% of GDP is a marginal cost.

30% of the Defence Budget is somebody's teeth, drugs and child care.
 

daftandbarmy

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Not really. The public doesn't put the two together. Are high fuel prices hurting the Liberals and Trudeau? I would say no. There is very little call to lower the gas taxes. Just in some quarters.

Use the Dairy industry in this country. Canadians ware high priced dairy as a badge of honour. Look at the last trade talks the US was in doing the average Canadian a favour but trying to get the supply management system dismantled. But how many times did you see we have to save the Canadian Dairy?

Stats Canada survey results seem to suggest otherwise:

Rising prices are affecting the ability to meet day-to-day expenses for most Canadians​


Over the past year, consumer inflation has steadily increased, reaching a year-over-year increase of 6.8% in April 2022. Heightened consumer demand and challenges to the supply chain are some of the main factors contributing to higher prices.

To understand how rising prices are contributing to financial concerns or influencing the financial decisions of Canadians, Statistics Canada conducted the Portrait of Canadian Society survey from April 19 to May 1, 2022.

It found that nearly three in four Canadians reported that rising prices are affecting their ability to meet day-to-day expenses such as transportation, housing, food, and clothing. As a result, many Canadians are adjusting their behaviour to adapt to this new reality, including adjusting their spending habits and delaying the purchase of a home or moving to a new rental.

Regionally, there was little variation between provinces—most Canadians are feeling the impacts of inflation. Those in lower income quintiles, however, are more concerned about and affected by rising prices.

 

Kirkhill

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That distinction between NORTHCOM and NORAD is important. We may have LOs embedded but we’re not part of NORTHCOM. For example, the ABM program resides within NORTHCOM and not NORAD precisely because we’re not part of NORTHCOM.

We have an exchange at VFA-125. It doesn’t make us (the greater CAF) part of VFA-125.

It is important. I agree.

But it doesn't negate the power difference between Canada and the USA and the USA's self-interests.
 

Kirkhill

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Stats Canada survey results seem to suggest otherwise:

Rising prices are affecting the ability to meet day-to-day expenses for most Canadians​


Over the past year, consumer inflation has steadily increased, reaching a year-over-year increase of 6.8% in April 2022. Heightened consumer demand and challenges to the supply chain are some of the main factors contributing to higher prices.

To understand how rising prices are contributing to financial concerns or influencing the financial decisions of Canadians, Statistics Canada conducted the Portrait of Canadian Society survey from April 19 to May 1, 2022.

It found that nearly three in four Canadians reported that rising prices are affecting their ability to meet day-to-day expenses such as transportation, housing, food, and clothing. As a result, many Canadians are adjusting their behaviour to adapt to this new reality, including adjusting their spending habits and delaying the purchase of a home or moving to a new rental.

Regionally, there was little variation between provinces—most Canadians are feeling the impacts of inflation. Those in lower income quintiles, however, are more concerned about and affected by rising prices.


But wouldn't the Government of Canada just take that as an opportunity to blame the paranoid Americans for raising prices and reducing jobs in Canada?
 

KevinB

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That distinction between NORTHCOM and NORAD is important. We may have LOs embedded but we’re not part of NORTHCOM. For example, the ABM program resides within NORTHCOM and not NORAD precisely because we’re not part of NORTHCOM.

We have an exchange at VFA-125. It doesn’t make us (the greater CAF) part of VFA-125.
The ONLY reason NORTHCOM exists separate from NORAD is the initial reluctance from Canada to sign onto ABM, and upgrade it's NORAD contributions.
Because without Canada as part of the ABM/BMS - we need to use part of Canada as the impact area for interception of inbound missiles.

Assuming Canada signs on to ABM, and continues modernization of NORAD installations and the F-35 goes forward, there will be no real barriers between NORTHCOM and NORAD. THAAD etc can then shoot down missiles further out -- either in the oceans or in non inhabited areas.
 

SupersonicMax

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NORTHCOM is much more than NORAD. I would say that ABM is only part of NORTHCOM because of our decision not to get into ABM.

NORTHCOM conducts many activities that are well beyond the scope of NORAD (domestic disaster relief, consequence management of domestic terrorist WMD usage, etc)
 

Good2Golf

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That distinction between NORTHCOM and NORAD is important. We may have LOs embedded but we’re not part of NORTHCOM. For example, the ABM program resides within NORTHCOM and not NORAD precisely because we’re not part of NORTHCOM.

We have an exchange at VFA-125. It doesn’t make us (the greater CAF) part of VFA-125.
No, the ABM program was nested within NORTHCOM because Canada said no to BMD in 2005, so that ruled out putting it in NORAD, which is where it would have gone if Canada had agreed to BMD.
 

KevinB

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NORTHCOM is much more than NORAD. I would say that ABM is only part of NORTHCOM because of our decision not to get into ABM.

NORTHCOM conducts many activities that are well beyond the scope of NORAD (domestic disaster relief, consequence management of domestic terrorist WMD usage, etc) NORTHCOM existed before we declined being part of ABM.

NORTHCOM was a 9/11 knee jerk. However it changed significantly with some of the disasters down here (Fires and Floods) - but the most significant aspect to the main separation is ABM.
- Domestic Response is 99% the National Guard, the fact the CG is the same and the staff nearly the same should shine a pretty big light that it exists simply due to concern with Canada's willingness to contribute to collective defense of NA.
 

SupersonicMax

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No, the ABM program was nested within NORTHCOM because Canada said no to BMD in 2005, so that ruled out putting it in NORAD, which is where it would have gone if Canada had agreed to BMD.
Precisely my point. It can’t be within NORAD because we don’t (didn’t?) want anything to do with it. It needed an organization that wasn’t a bilateral command.
 

YZT580

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But wouldn't the Government of Canada just take that as an opportunity to blame the paranoid Americans for raising prices and reducing jobs in Canada?
Would depend entirely (or almost) upon the attitude reflected in the press in all its forms. Trudeau and co. cannot get their version of events through to the public unless the press cooperates and prints or broadcasts that version. If they put events and results in front of the people and keep them their for longer than 48 hours you just might see change but it does require constant and consistent messaging.
 

CBH99

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But wouldn't the Government of Canada just take that as an opportunity to blame the paranoid Americans for raising prices and reducing jobs in Canada?
If their other CoA is to take ownership of some pretty stupid monetary policies that are contributing to everything getting more expensive… if they can paint someone else as the bad guy, they’ll probably go that route.

When I say GoC going that route, I really do mean Trudeau. Nothing personal (albeit I dislike him intensely) but he is the face & voice of the government, and he doesn’t seem to own much if it’s negative.
 

FJAG

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Canada spending almost $5B to upgrade continental defence, Anand says​

NORAD overhaul will replace aging radar stations in Far North​


Murray Brewster · CBC News · Posted: Jun 20, 2022 12:09 PM ET

Canada will spend $4.9 billion over the next six years to modernize continental defence, Defence Minister Anita Anand said Monday.
Anand delivered the long-awaited announcement on the NORAD upgrade at the Canadian military's principal air base at Trenton, Ont.
"NORAD has continually adapted and evolved in response to new threats. Today, we turn another page and begin NORAD's next chapter," the minister said in front a backdrop of flags and an aging CF-18 jet fighter.

The figure represents Canada's share of the cost of overhauling the decades-old joint bi-national air defence command, originally designed to watch out for Soviet bombers. The project was not part of the Liberal government's 2017 defence policy document.

The United States covers about 60 per cent of the bill for NORAD.
The cash is expected to come out of the latest federal budget, which set aside up to $8 billion in new funding beyond increases in defence appropriations to which the Liberal government already had agreed. Up to $6 billion of that money was earmarked for a variety of commitments, including NORAD modernization.
Anand said the government's overall investment in continental and northern defence will exceed $40 billion over the next two decades. She did not provide a breakdown of that spending and the Department of National Defence did not release a backgrounder explaining the proposed expenditure. ....

See rest of article here

🍻
 

Underway

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Highlights of stuff we care about (missed a few french points):

All the money announced is new money 4.9 billion over 6 years and 40billion over 20 years (funded...), on top of what was in the budget.

1. Investment in new capabilities to detect threats to NA with brand new Northern Approaches Surveillance System
  • Arctic Over the Horizon Radar System - Canada/US border to Arctic Circle
  • Polar Over the Horizon Radar System - over an beyond the northern most approaches to NA including Canadian Arctic Archipelago
  • Crossbow (new system) - network of sensors with classified capabilities distributed across northern Canada as further layer of detection.
  • Commitments for space-based surveillance sats owned and launched by Canada
2. Investment in new technology to enable decision-making.
  • modernizing C2I systems
  • expanding Canada's contribution to NORAD Pathfinder Initiative (cloud computing and machine learning)
  • Modernizing Canadian Combined Air Operations center with focus on navigation capabilities in the north
  • renewing CAF high and low freq sat comms in arctic
  • procure and install new digital radios and network equipment
  • new AA missiles for the F-35
  • 88 F-35
3. New infrastructure investments
  • new Air Refueling aircraft
  • northern basing and infrastructure (at four locations in the north)
  • upgrading NORAD quick reaction alert capabilities and infrastructure
  • modernize air operational infrastructure
Upcoming defence policy update, eye to changing situations around the world.
BMD is moving into an Integrated Air and Missile Defence system direction with multiple effectors. Kind of dodged the question a bit.
 

daftandbarmy

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Highlights of stuff we care about (missed a few french points):

All the money announced is new money 4.9 billion over 6 years and 40billion over 20 years (funded...), on top of what was in the budget.

1. Investment in new capabilities to detect threats to NA with brand new Northern Approaches Surveillance System
  • Arctic Over the Horizon Radar System - Canada/US border to Arctic Circle
  • Polar Over the Horizon Radar System - over an beyond the northern most approaches to NA including Canadian Arctic Archipelago
  • Crossbow (new system) - network of sensors with classified capabilities distributed across northern Canada as further layer of detection.
  • Commitments for space-based surveillance sats owned and launched by Canada
2. Investment in new technology to enable decision-making.
  • modernizing C2I systems
  • expanding Canada's contribution to NORAD Pathfinder Initiative (cloud computing and machine learning)
  • Modernizing Canadian Combined Air Operations center with focus on navigation capabilities in the north
  • renewing CAF high and low freq sat comms in arctic
  • procure and install new digital radios and network equipment
  • new AA missiles for the F-35
  • 88 F-35
3. New infrastructure investments
  • new Air Refueling aircraft
  • northern basing and infrastructure (at four locations in the north)
  • upgrading NORAD quick reaction alert capabilities and infrastructure
  • modernize air operational infrastructure
Upcoming defence policy update, eye to changing situations around the world.
BMD is moving into an Integrated Air and Missile Defence system direction with multiple effectors. Kind of dodged the question a bit.

RCAF be like...


smug top gear GIF
 

Quirky

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RCAF be like...

Still nothing to address the retention issues, housing and cost of living. RCAF manning is falling apart and some trades are not recoverable, but hey, we will have new buildings and shiny things that will just sit there collecting dust.
 
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