Topic: Election 2011

[Journeyman]

Time for the Conservatives to take a step back to the left if the NDP are gaining ground.

I'd rather a party stick to it's avowed policies than shift left and right with the prevailing wind of random polls.

But that's just me.

[Kirkhill]

I'd rather a party stick to it's avowed policies than shift left and right with the prevailing wind of random polls.

But that's just me.

Moi aussi.

[Thucydides]

Political humour part 2: What do political parties do for us?

[E.R. Campbell]

An interesting bit of interactive trivia is at the Globe and Mail.

Let me see:

1953 - the Globe and Mail endorsed the Conservatives (Drew). They, the Conservatives, lost;
1957 - the Globe and Mail endorsed the Conservatives (Diefenbaker). They, the Conservatives, won;
1958 - the Globe and Mail endorsed the Conservatives (Diefenbaker). They, the Conservatives, won;
1962 - the Globe and Mail endorsed the Conservatives (Diefenbaker). They, the Conservatives, won;
1963 - the Globe and Mail endorsed the Liberals (Pearson). They, the Liberals, won;
1965 - the Globe and Mail endorsed the Conservatives (Diefenbaker). They, the Conservatives, lost;
1968 - the Globe and Mail endorsed the Liberals (Trudeau). They, the Liberals, won;
1972 - the Globe and Mail endorsed the Liberals (Trudeau). They, the Liberals, won;
1974 - the Globe and Mail endorsed the Conservatives (Stanfield). They, the Conservatives, lost;
1979 - the Globe and Mail endorsed the Conservatives (Clark). They, the Conservatives, won;
1980 - the Globe and Mail endorsed the Conservatives (Clark). They, the Conservatives, lost;
1984 - the Globe and Mail endorsed the Conservatives (Mulroney). They, the Conservatives, won;
1988 - the Globe and Mail endorsed the Conservatives (Mulroney). They, the Conservatives, won;
1993 - the Globe and Mail endorsed the Liberals (Chrétien). They, the Liberals, won;
1997 - the Globe and Mail endorsed the Conservatives (Charest). They, the Conservatives, lost;
2000 - the Globe and Mail endorsed the Liberals (Chrétien). They, the Liberals, won;
2004 - the Globe and Mail endorsed the Liberals (Martin). They, the Liberals, won;
2006 - the Globe and Mail endorsed the Conservatives (Harper). They, the Conservatives, won; and
2008 - the Globe and Mail endorsed the Conservatives (Harper). They, the Conservatives, won.
2011 - the Globe and Mail endorsed the Conservatives (Harper). They, the Conservatives, ___.
Even more trivia; since 1953 the Good Grey Globe has:

1. Endorsed the Conservatives 13 times (out of 19) - the Conservatives won eight of those 19 elections;

2. Endorsed the Liberals six times. The Liberals won 11 of 19 elections; and

3. Backed the winner every single time it endorsed a Liberal.

Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail, is the Globe's endorsement of Stephen Harper's Conservatives for the next Government of Canada:

My emphasis added.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/editorials/the-globes-election-endorsement-facing-up-to-our-challenges/article2001610/

GLOBE EDITORIAL
The Globe’s election endorsement: Facing up to our challenges

From Thursday's Globe and Mail
Published Wednesday, Apr. 27, 2011

We are nearing the end of an unremarkable and disappointing election campaign, marked by petty scandals, policy convergences and a dearth of serious debate. Canadians deserved better. We were not presented with an opportunity to vote for something bigger and bolder, nor has there been an honest recognition of the most critical issues that lie ahead: a volatile economy, ballooning public debts and the unwieldy future of our health-care system.

The challenges facing our next federal government do not end there, of course. The next House of Commons must find new ways to protect Parliament, the heart of our democracy. It needs to reform its troubled equalization program without straining national unity. Relations with the U.S. are at a critical juncture. Any thickening of the border threatens to punish all Canadians, while negotiations over perimeter security have implications for national sovereignty and economic security. Wars in Libya and Afghanistan, climate change, Canada's role in the world, the rapid and exciting change of the country's ethnic and cultural makeup – the list is great, as is the need for strong leadership in Ottawa.

Whom should Canadians turn to?

The Liberal Party's Michael Ignatieff has been an honourable opposition leader; he has risen above the personal attacks launched by the Conservatives, he has stood up for Parliament, and he has fought hard in this election. But his campaign failed to show how the Conservative government has failed, and why he and the Liberals are a preferred alternative.

Jack Layton has energized the New Democrats and the electorate, and seems more able than the other leaders to connect with ordinary people. He has succeeded in putting a benign gloss on his party's free-spending policies, but those policies remain unrealistic and unaffordable, at a time when the country needs to better manage public spending, not inflate it. He has shown that a federalist party can make serious inroads in Quebec, but it has come at the cost of an unwelcome promise to impose provisions of Quebec's language law in federal workplaces.

Only Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party have shown the leadership, the bullheadedness (let's call it what it is) and the discipline this country needs. He has built the Conservatives into arguably the only truly national party, and during his five years in office has demonstrated strength of character, resolve and a desire to reform. Canadians take Mr. Harper's successful stewardship of the economy for granted, which is high praise. He has not been the scary character portrayed by the opposition; with some exceptions, his government has been moderate and pragmatic.

Mr. Harper could achieve a great deal more if he would relax his grip on Parliament, its independent officers and the flow of information, and instead bring his disciplined approach to bear on the great challenges at hand. That is the great strike against the Conservatives: a disrespect for Parliament, the abuse of prorogation, the repeated attempts (including during this campaign) to stanch debate and free expression. It is a disappointing failing in a leader who previously emerged from a populist movement that fought so valiantly for democratic reforms.

Those who disdain the Harper approach should consider his overall record, which is good. The Prime Minister and the Conservative Party have demonstrated principled judgment on the economic file. They are not doctrinaire; with the support of other parties they adopted stimulus spending after the financial crash of 2008, when it was right to do so. They have assiduously pursued a whole range of trade negotiations. They have facilitated the extension of the GST/HST to Ontario and British Columbia, and have persisted in their plan for a national securities regulator. The Conservatives have greater respect, too, for the free market, and for freedom of international investment, in spite of their apparent yielding to political pressure in the proposed takeover of Potash Corp.

Even more determination will be needed to confront the sustainability of publicly funded health care in an aging society. Health care is suffering from chronic spending disease. If left unchecked, it could swallow as much as 31 cents of each new dollar in wealth created in Canada in the next 20 years. In spite of some unwise commitments he has made on subsidy increases to the provinces, Mr. Harper has the toughness and reformist instincts to push the provinces toward greater experimentation (in private delivery, for instance) and change.

The campaign of 2011 – so vicious and often vapid – should not be remembered fondly. But that will soon be behind us. If the result is a confident new Parliament, it could help propel Canada into a fresh period of innovation, government reform and global ambition. Stephen Harper and the Conservatives are best positioned to guide Canada there.

With a couple of minor grammatical quibbles (I would, for example, have said ”To whom should Canadians turn?”) I think the Good Grey Globe has it about right: Mr. Harper is not flawless but neither is a he a scary, doctrinaire neo-con (and, by the way, I'm with Brad Sallows on the definition of neo-con). He is a steady, competent hand on the tiller – just what we need in rough economic waters.

Ignatieff and Layton are distinguished men in their own rights and they have demonstrated courage and determination in this campaign but neither is ready or fit to lead Canada. I remind readers that I am a card carrying Conservative and a significant financial contributor to that party so you will forgive me, I hope, for saying that: The best choice, for most Canadians, is Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party of Canada.


Edit: added the 2010 endorsement to my earlier post

[E.R. Campbell]

Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail, is an insightful article about the perils of polling:

My emphasis added.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/when-polls-differ-pollsters-worry/article2001533/

When polls differ, pollsters worry

STEVE LADURANTAYE
From Thursday's Globe and Mail
Published Wednesday, Apr. 27, 2011

When Frank Graves considered recent polling results generated by EKOS Research, he felt the sweat bead on his forehead as he tried to reconcile a report that was guaranteed to change the tone of the election.

The results were very different from what other pollsters had been reporting, and showed the NDP had moved past the Liberals into second place and could take as many as 100 seats nationally.

“I didn’t sleep the night before we brought out that bombshell of a poll,” he said. “I’d be in bed thinking about how my method works, worrying about whether the results are repeatable.”
The poll, which was made public Monday, highlighted the growing divide among the handful of pollsters who have been trying to make sense of this election. It’s not just that they’re seeing different levels of support for different parties – that’s normal. Finding that the NDP is unexpectedly rushing toward what could be its best showing in history is another matter, especially if you’re the first out of the gate.

“If you get this wrong then people are going to say that you’ve just really maliciously and stupidly entered into an election debate and provided everyone with crappy advice,” Mr. Graves said. “That’s kind of a career destroyer.”

Because the pollsters all use different methodologies, their results have appeared to conflict at times and have confused voters unsure how to interpret the results.

EKOS uses a method of polling in which an automated system calls random numbers, and relies on whomever answers the phone to punch in their answers on a keypad. Ipsos-Reid’s most recent release was put together by asking questions of an online panel, and the company has also used the telephone. Nanos Research does a nightly poll of 400 people via phone.

While the pollsters generally agree on key trends – the NDP is eating into the Bloc Québécois base, the Liberals have been falling back – the biggest inconsistency is how the Conservatives have been faring. The pollsters are also on different timelines, so even when they agree it can take a few days for the data to catch up.

Nanos Research president Nik Nanos said he’s reconciling the differences by focusing on trends rather than hard numbers. That’s especially true, he said, when you get to regional breakdowns, which can be volatile. “We should be looking more at the direction and trend because it’s more important than the actual number,” he said.

Ipsos president Darrell Bricker said this is the first election he can think of that has seen pollsters use such a wide range of methods. “I’ve stopped looking at the other polls,” he said. “All we can do is be open and transparent, and constantly questioning … and invalidating our own work. If we don’t do that, the election results will humble us all.”

While the NDP surge is undoubtedly real, it’s impossible to say how that will translate into votes. And if the party’s strong showing doesn’t translate into an increased number of seats in the House of Commons, an industry that is already self-conscious about its track record will find it has some explaining to do.

Critics charge that small sample sizes, low response rates and the use of technology render the results all but useless, something the pollsters deny. They are able to target youth by randomly calling cellphone exchanges, for example.

“I hear people say that polling is completely invalid these days,” said Mr. Bricker. “That’s absolute crap – there are more ways to contact people than ever, so many avenues of evidence to pull together.”

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association, which represents market research companies in Canada, released a report called “There’s No Margin of Error on the Truth” in an effort to debunk claims that the polling industry “is having a crisis of confidence.”

The report shows that the final-week polling results came very close to actual results in both 2006 and 2008, and suggests that having so many polls through a campaign leads to a better system in which politicians find it harder to spin their messages.

For Mr. Graves, the only thing that matters now is how the seats break down on Monday. “Hopefully on election night I’ll stay in with a glass of wine and a few friends,” he said, “and chuckle about how right I got it once again.”

I agree that the NDP is up and the Liberals are down, but, as DCRabbit pointed out, the Québec numbers may well be skewing the national samples. I remain hopeful that the Conservative vote will turn out and that, over the last week-end of the campaign, voters will see that neither the Liberals nor the NDP is ready or able to govern Canada.

[Old Sweat]

This story by Jane Taber from the Globe and Mail's site is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provision of the Copyright Act. Note how the Quebec figures skew the national results and the differences from the national data for Ontario and BC.


Now within six points of Harper, Layton faces ‘trial by fire’


Jane TaBer

Ottawa— Globe and Mail Update

Posted on Thursday, April 28, 2011 7:22AM EDT
 

Jack Layton’s unprecedented surge in Quebec is beginning to spill over into the rest of Canada as he and his New Democratic Party close in on Stephen Harper’s front-running Conservatives, according to the latest Nanos Research poll.

Michael Ignatieff’s Liberals, meanwhile, are being left in the dust.

The three-day tracking survey conducted for The Globe and Mail and CTV shows Conservative support at 36.6 per cent nationally with the NDP just six points behind at 30.4 per cent. The Liberals have 21.9 per cent support, the Bloc is at 6 per cent and the Greens are at 4.1 per cent support.

And with such little time left before the May 2 vote the prospect of a majority government for the Mr. Harper’s Tories is quickly slipping away, pollster Nik Nanos says. “It would take a phenomenally efficient national Conservative campaign to generate a majority at 36.6 per cent.”
 
All of the momentum now is with Mr. Layton and his New Democrats, who now appear to be firmly in second place and poised to, at least, become the Official Opposition.

This is fuelled by Mr. Layton’s growing strength in Quebec. The Nanos numbers show the NDP with 42.5 per cent support, up from 36.5 per cent the day before. This compares to the Bloc at 25.1 per cent. The Liberals have 15 per cent support and the Conservatives are at 13.5 per cent. The margin of error for the regional sample is plus or minus 6.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The poll also shows the NDP’s Quebec strength is starting to move the party’s numbers in vote-rich Ontario.

“We’re in a phase now where we’re starting to see a spillover effect with the NDP starting to gain in Ontario,” Mr. Nanos says. “When parties start to gain in the two biggest provinces, Quebec and Ontario, you know the numbers are moving.”
 
Mr. Nanos points out that the Tories are still comfortably ahead in Ontario – 41.1 per cent support compared to the NDP at 26.1 per cent – but their support has been slipping. In one day, between April 26 and 27, the Tories have dropped nearly six points from 46.9 per cent. The NDP, meanwhile, has seen its support grow five points from 21 per cent.

The Liberals are at 27.9 per cent in Ontario, up from 25.7 per cent the night before. The margin of error in the province is plus or minus 5.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

In British Columbia the Tories are well ahead with 45.3 per cent support. The NDP and Liberals, meanwhile, are in a statistical tie with 26.9 per cent and 23.1 per cent respectively. The margin of error in B.C. is plus or minus 8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Another factor in Mr. Layton’s favour, Mr. Nanos notes, is that the question of “party leader” may be starting to become a factor in the way Canadians vote. Forty-nine per cent of respondents still say policy influences their vote but when asked about the party leader the numbers are moving slightly, from 24 per cent on April 26 to 26 per cent on April 27.

Mr. Nanos says that is good for whoever is ahead right now – and that is Jack Layton. As a result the target is now clearly on Mr. Layton’s back; whether he can survive the onslaught will not be determined until ballots are cast Monday.

“This will be trial by fire for Jack Layton and the New Democrats in the next three days because there will be a full assault on all sides,” Mr. Nanos says. “He has obviously done his damage on the Liberals in terms of their support and the Conservatives have to start looking over their shoulder.”
 
The poll of 1,012 Canadians was conducted between April 24, 26 and 27. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

[E.R. Campbell]

Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from ThreeHundredEight.com are the latest projections which show a continuing, indeed accelerating Conservative decline:

http://www.threehundredeight.blogspot.com/

CANADIAN POLITICS AND ELECTORAL PROJECTIONS


April 28, 2011 Projection - Conservative Minority Government

THURSDAY, APRIL 28, 2011

Conservatives drifting from majority

Three new national polls from EKOS, Nanos, and Forum have been added to the model, along with five new riding polls conducted in Quebec. The result is another gain for the New Democrats, mostly at the expense of the Conservative Party



The Conservatives are now down 0.3 points to 36.9% nationally, and have dropped three seats to only 143. That is where they stood when the election began, but in practice it is even lower as two safe Conservative seats were vacant at the dissolution of the House of Commons.

The Liberals are down 0.4 points to 25.4% and one seat to 74. The New Democrats are up 0.9 points to 22.9% and four seats to 47, moving them into third position in the projection. More seats are on the way for the NDP, though.

The Bloc Québécois is down to 7.5% nationally but is steady at 43 seats, a number they will not hold on to for many more days. The Greens are unchanged at 6%.



The problems facing the Conservatives are clear in the regional breakdown. While they are holding steady in the two westernmost provinces, they are down big in the Prairies and Atlantic Canada, and are losing ground in Ontario and Quebec.

The Liberals are also in trouble, with big drops in Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia. They are holding steady in Atlantic Canada but that is little consolation. The party would be losing many seats in Ontario if the Conservatives weren't on the decline in the province as well.

For the Bloc, they are down again to 31.4% and will continue to drop like a stone. They are reaching the point in the projection where they will begin to lose seats in bunches, primarily to the NDP.

The New Democrats, meanwhile, continue to gain everywhere, up about a point in every part of the country except British Columbia. They made another giant leap forward in Quebec and are now trailing the Bloc by only four points.

Six seats changed hands, all in Quebec and Atlantic Canada.

The New Democrats picked up Brossard - La Prairie and Saint-Lambert in Quebec, the first from the Liberals and the second from the Bloc. Hoang Mai and Sadia Groguhé are now the respective favourites.

The Bloc has retaken Haute-Gaspésie - La Mitis - Matane - Matapédia from the Liberals, thanks in large part to a riding poll added to the model which had Jean-François Fortin of the Bloc in the lead.

In Nova Scotia, the New Democrats have taken two seats from the Conservatives: Central Nova and South Shore - St. Margaret's. David Parker is the new favourite in Peter MacKay's seat, while former NDP MP Gordon Earle is the favourite in South Shore - St. Margaret's.

The Liberals have also regained a seat themsevles, taking Random - Burin - St. George's back from the Tories in Newfoundland & Labrador.

The New Democrats are still moving forward in the projection and will undoubtedly take second spot in the popular vote projecton before May 2nd. Seats in which the NDP trails by five points or less in the projection include:

Surrey North (CPC), Vancouver Island North (CPC), Saskatoon - Rosetown - Biggar (CPC), Brome - Missisquoi (BQ), Châteauguay - Saint-Constant (BQ), Laurier - Sainte-Marie (BQ), Laval (BQ), Laval - Les Îles (LPC), Notre-Dame-de-Grâce - Lachine (LPC), Dartmouth - Cole Harbour (LPC), St. John's South - Mount Pearl (LPC), Nunavut (CPC).

If the NDP took all of these seats they would have 59 in the projection. All else being equal, the Conservatives would be reduced to 139, the Liberals to 70, and the Bloc Québécois to 39.

Note that of the 11 ridings listed as being within five points for the New Democrats yesterday, the NDP captured four of them, and another five were added to the list today.

For the first time, on ThreeHundredEight.com, the NDP is projected to displace the BQ as the third party.

I think there is still time – that frenetic, almost sleepless long weekend I have mentioned before – for Stephen Harper to show Canadians that he really wants their votes, but he has to work hard for them because the trend is away from him.


Edit: typos

[E.R. Campbell]

Look at ThreeHundredEight.com's aggregated polling trends:


Source: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-8sNL7YfF_D8/TbiI2UPh3xI/AAAAAAAAE94/Vjvq8Z6NpNs/s1600/Canada+Polls.PNG


The Conservatives have been trending down, gradually but steadily, for the past 17 days. The Liberal decline, now precipitous, started just a few days later. The NDP surge began nearly three weeks ago and accelerated over the past ten days.

But, look at the undecided voters (grey line) - they have, once again, jumped from about 8.5% to 15% in two days - that's potentially good news for everyone and anyone who can exploit that uncertainty.

[PuckChaser]

I really think the Conservatives need to seize on what the market is doing because of the NDP surge. Hard facts about the TSX going down because business is scared of the NDP might bring in some of the undecided voters.

[Retired AF Guy]

I didn't realize Larry Campbell was so poorly informed.  A neo-conservative is essentially a welfare liberal who leans toward fiscally conservative (Paul Martin) and interventionist pro-liberty (eg. Responsibility to Protect - say hello again to Paul Martin) foreign policies - essentially, what Canada's LPC already is.  He think the CPC was formed by a merger of the old PCs with "neo-conservatives".  Wrong.  The merger he muses about - NDP + LPC - is a merger of the NDP with Canada's neo-cons.  Doubtless he thinks the term is a pejorative without realizing he speaks of himself.

Among the progressive left, "neo-conservative" has become a derogatory name used to describe a bunch of right-wing rednecks, who are ruled by big oil/big corporations/big whatever and want to bring about a new world order or some other nonsense. Personally, when I hear the term, it makes me think of the old joke about, "What is the definition of a Conservative? ANS: A Liberal that got mugged. "  To me that is what a neo-con is: A bunch of liberals that realized that their party (originally the Democrats) had shifted to far left and needed to tack to the right if was going to be relevant.

[GR66]

Well...what was looking to be a boring, achieve nothing election has turned pretty darned interesting all of a sudden!  I have held some pretty serious doubts about the NDP translating their growing popularity into actual seats but the continuing trends are starting to make me wonder.  After all I never would have predicted the extent of the total collapse of the PC's under Kim Campbell either. 

I've always considered myself to be on the (far) right wing of the Liberal party and have therefore never personally thought of the NDP as a potential alternative vote, but the distaste which many traditional Liberal supporters have for Steven Harper personally may actually lead many Liberals to jump to the left if they see the LPC collapsing.  They may however just decide to stay home and see how things unfold.

In some of the PM's most recent comments he's suggested that Jack Layton and the NDP aren't READY to lead the country.  I'm not sure that is a very effective argument for the CPC to make.  After all, didn't the Liberals say exactly the same thing about Steven Harper and the Conservatives before they were elected?

I also see Steven Harper's tightly controlled leadership style working against him in these dying days of the campaign.  While he may be seen as being the most competent party leader he is trailing Jack Layton in terms of trust and vision.  I'd argue that the latter two characteristics have much greater potential to swing undecided votes than the first which will work to Layton's advantage. 

So unfortunately Harper is in somewhat of a losing game vs. Layton on a personal level so that would suggest his best tactic would be then to fall back on the strength of the Conservative "team" and to fight the NDP on a policy level.  Oops...the tightly centralized control of Harper's PMO hasn't really allowed for the development of a strongly recognized and trusted Conservative team.  This is afterall the "Harper Government".  On a policy level it's also hard for a government to stand very firmly on it's record when they've had the misfortune of governing through a difficult recession (no fault of their own...just bad luck) and haven't helped themselves in the credibility department by having the largest deficit in history (doing basically the same things they say the NDP would do), had questionable spending practices in regard to the G8/G20, and not done a great job on defending some of their largest spending plans (F-35's anyone?). 

It will be VERY interesting to see what actually happens on election night!

[GAP]

I don't see why the Liberals are so scared of the NDP......

Heck, all they have to do is trot out Bob Rae and have him tell everybody why it sucked to have an NDP government......I'm sure Bob won't mind helping out, gee, even Jean Cretean (purposely mispelled) helped out Iggy....

[ModlrMike]

I wonder if the upswing in undecided voters represents Liberals who are now trying to decide which way to turn. It is those "former" Liberals that both Harper and Layton need to attract.

[PuckChaser]

In some of the PM's most recent comments he's suggested that Jack Layton and the NDP aren't READY to lead the country.  I'm not sure that is a very effective argument for the CPC to make.  After all, didn't the Liberals say exactly the same thing about Steven Harper and the Conservatives before they were elected?

Nope, I'm sure they said he'd abolish abortion, make everyone practice Christianity and he'd also put troops on the streets with guns. 

[GAP]

Combative Ignatieff says Tories can 'go to hell'
 Article Link
Published On Wed Apr 27 2011

Les Whittington and Richard J. Brennan Staff Reporters

A combative Michael Ignatieff has stepped up criticisms of his political rivals, saying Jack Layton is “getting a free ride” and telling Conservatives “they can go to hell.”

Ignatieff, whose party has fallen into third place in the polls, told the Toronto Star editorial board Wednesday that a lot of the Liberals’ woes can be traced to the relentless Conservative attack ads.

“I am not going to complain about it because it seems to give the other guys too much damn credit. I don’t give these guys damn credit for anything,” the Liberal leader said, slamming his fist on the table. “I am not going to let other people frame me up … they can go to hell is what I have thought basically for two and a half years.

“I have spent my whole life dealing with bullies. Some of them had guns,” he said in a reference to his days as a journalist working in foreign countries. “You think this stuff shuts me down? You got to be kidding.”

He spoke to the Star hours before a rally intended to shore up the Liberals’ Toronto base. Ignatieff joined dozens of GTA Liberal candidates and former prime minister Jean Chrétien for a noisy, enthusiastic rally in North York.

Despite the polls, which show the Liberals trailing the NDP and the front-running Conservatives, Ignatieff says the game isn’t over and he’s still got a chance to win.

It’s “wake-up time” with respect to the NDP surge, he said, adding that Canadians should take a close look at Layton’s election promises.

“They just don’t get fiscal discipline,” he said.
More on link

[E.R. Campbell]

Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail, is some media spin on some Conservative spin:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/dont-believe-the-polling-hype-harpers-campaign-chief-tells-her-troops/article2001915/

Don’t believe the polling hype, Harper’s campaign chief tells her troops

JANE TABER
Globe and Mail Update

Posted on Thursday, April 28, 2011

Stephen Harper’s campaign manager is warning Tory troops not to believe the polls or what they read in the media since the election is far from over.

“Make no mistake – nothing is decided yet,” Jenni Byrne writes in the statement dated Wednesday. “There are many close races where even a handful of votes will make the difference.”

She notes, too, that Canada’s “future is at stake in this election.”

Or is it the Conservative Party’s future that’s at stake? in this election? Is Ms. Byrne channeling Tory nervousness about the way in which this campaign is unfolding? Or is she merely trying to motivate campaign workers to get out the vote on May 2?

The latest polling numbers show the possibility of a Tory majority government slipping away. Not surprising then, her warning about reading too much into the media polls.

“We are concerned that due to media coverage or ‘so-called polls,’ some might feel that the election is already over. That is not the case,” she writes.

Thursday’s Nanos Research poll has Jack Layton firmly in second place and beginning to close the gap on Mr. Harper. The NDP is now only six points behind the Tories, though Michael Ignatieff’s Liberals are almost 15 points behind the front-running Conservatives.

In her note, Ms. Byrne raises the spectre – as Mr. Harper and his Tories have throughout the campaign – of a scary big-spending, coalition government. This time, however, there is much more emphasis on the NDP.

“Our country’s future is at risk from an unstable, reckless coalition made up of Ignatieff Liberals, NDP and the Bloc Québecois,” Ms. Bryne says. “We have seen what the NDP can do. In Ontario, we remember what happened when the NDP got hold of the reins of power: tens of thousands of jobs lost, an economy totally mismanaged, and skyrocketing taxes.”

She asks her supporters to “spread the message” about a coalition government and to take family members or friends to the polls. She notes the record turnout at the advance polls over the Easter weekend and attributes it to her opponents working hard to get out their vote.

“Now is not the time to rest,” she asserts. “As Conservatives we must buckle down and take this threat from our opponents seriously.”

Ms. Byrne's spin is correct:  the election is not over. But, I hope her message is getting through to more than just the Conservative Party faithful – the leader, Harper, and the candidates need to listen to her and they need to make a final push for votes.

Jane Taber's spin is also correct: many Tories are, I suspect, whistling past a graveyard. There is reason to fear that the decline, which I noted above, is too deeply entrenched to be reversed. It has been my view that if, now a Big IF, the Conservatives are returned with a larger (than 143 seats) minority then it will be difficult for the opposition parties to unite, in the face of the voters' clearly expressed preference for the Conservatives over any of them, even over any two of them, to defeat the government and install a coalition. But, if the Conservatives come back with a smaller minority and if, still a Big IF, either the Liberal or the NDP make really big gains then Canadians might accept a “second place” government, supported, formally, by the other losers. Thus, Conservative have reasons to worry.

[E.R. Campbell]

... the distaste which many traditional Liberal supporters have for Steven Harper personally may actually lead many Liberals to jump to the left if they see the LPC collapsing.  They may however just decide to stay home and see how things unfold.
...

I wonder if the upswing in undecided voters represents Liberals who are now trying to decide which way to turn. It is those "former" Liberals that both Harper and Layton need to attract.

I think, or at least I hope think you are both on to something. My guess is that:

1. A very few Liberals will jump right to help Harper fend off the socialist hordes;
2. Some Liberals, more than the ones above, will jump left on to the Layton bandwagon; but
3. Even more Liberals are now deciding to sit this one out, again – having been let down by their leader twice in a row.

[recceguy]

That's it, he's finally lost it. Iggy's spiral is now complete and can only get tighter and faster from this point on. His sprint to catch the front has left him out of breathe, battered and beat five days before the finish line. He's spent. He can't recover.

I prefer to listen to and watch the candidates. Their desperation (in some cases) or their calm and head down, one foot in front of the other demeanor is more telling than any poll. I find polls very suspect and don't put much stock in them. On the final day, polls have never been that accurate or mattered. Many times parties have shown meteoric rise, a la Layton, only to have that support completely evaporate at the voting booth. Voters are fickle and can't be depended on to do what the parties or the MSM want.

[E.R. Campbell]

CAUTION

This web site will be a "news portal" on election night - rather like the TV networks. They, the TV networks and, for example, the newspaper web sites, are forbidden by law from broadcasting results until the polls close in BC. Those "news portals" that break the rules are subject to criminal charges and large fines.

I ask all members to help Mike Bobbitt by obeying the law on 2 May 11 and keeping election results secret until the polls are closed in BC.

Thanks, in advance.

[Journeyman]

Combative Ignatieff says Tories can 'go to hell'
Published On Wed Apr 27 2011

I would say more scared than combative. Despite the Star's efforts to make their candidate look like some tough guy, the description comes across as one of sheer desperation.

As for "dealing with bullies his whole life".....I never realized the Harvard campus was that threatening 

[dapaterson]

I would say more scared than combative. Despite the Star's efforts to make their candidate look like some tough guy, the description comes across as one of sheer desperation.

As for "dealing with bullies his whole life".....I never realized the Harvard campus was that threatening 

Well, you know academics.  Waving those red pens in the air; making idle, incoherent chatter that masquerades as first-year courses; threatening to leave your publication off their reading lists... the atmosphere is pure poison.

[Thucydides]

A look at the Liberal implosion by a blogger (who is sadly supporting the Dippers):

http://skippy-posts.blogspot.com/2011/04/serenity-and-denial-michael-ignatieff.html

Serenity and denial: Michael Ignatieff and the fall of Berlin

So I got a robocall yesterday evening from Micheal Ignatieff his own self, a first in this campaign. I live in one of the safest Liberal constituencies in all of the Dominion. If my MP loses, the Liberal Party of Canada will be well and truly annihilated. There will be, simply put, nothing left. All will be lost and there will be nothing to rebuild.

Professor Ignatieff was kind enough to invite me to a rally at the Montecassino Hotel in the adjoining riding of York Centre tonight. And he's bringing a friend, the Right Honourable Jean Chretien, 20th Prime minister of Canada and the last guy to secure himself a majority government. That riding is represented by former leadership candidate and legendary goalie Ken Dryden, who is in deep, deep trouble.

Some history might be necessary here for my foreign readers. Chretien owed his reign to a divided Conservative movement that allowed him to dominate Ontario and win roughly half of Quebec's seats. It would have been extraordinarily difficult for him not to win a majority under those circumstances, although he nearly pulled it off in 1997. Even after the Progressive Conservative and Canadian Reform Alliance parties merged under the Conservative Party banner in 2003, the Grits still managed to hold all but two of Toronto's (area code 416) 24 ridings and the majority of the 905 belt surrounding the Center of the Universe.

If nothing else, that kept the Liberals competitive in Ontario. Even the hapless Stephane Dion managed to hold the Greater Toronto Area, which allowed the party to focus its resources elsewhere, although to little effect. Nearly a third of their seats are in 416 and the rest are in 905 and Montreal.

Long story short, if Ignatieff feels it absolutely necessary to bring Chretien into 416, they are ****ed beyond repair and they know it. The apocalypse is upon them and there is no escape. Their bones are being crushed into dust nationally and there is little to no chance that they'll even remain as the Official Opposition in the next Parliament. Even when Paul Martin and Dion were busy losing, they kept the le petit gars de Shawinigan as far away from Toronto as possible. Chretien himself rarely campaigned here as prime minister, since his presence was wholly unnecessary and therefore a giant waste of time and resources.

They're fighting for their lives in 416 itself now. Reasonable people fully expect the Grits to lose both Dryden's York Centre seat and the neighboring riding of Eglinton-Lawrence. This is the political equivalent of the final defense of Berlin from marauding Soviet troops in April of 1945 and I now expect it to end about the same way. Once those ridings fall, all that's left is the Hitler's bunker of downtown Toronto, and the NDP Power Twins, Jack Layton and Olivia Chow, already hold two of those seats. Not only do the Grits have to worry about a Tory incursion into the north west of 416, the NDP could very well retake Parkdale-High Park. If that happens, Iggy's own riding of Etobicoke-Lakeshore could be at risk. I'm actually shocked that the Ford brothers haven't been working their backyard hard for Harper. That could start a pincer movement that could drive the federal Liberals directly into Lake Ontario in the very near future.

Besides bringing Chretien into Fortress Toronto, Iggy appears to have written off British Columbia, leaving it for the Conservatives and New Democrats to fight over. The map is finally too daunting for anyone to ignore. Worse, Canada's most reliable pollster, Nik Nanos, has (albeit belatedly) confirmed the NDP surge (PDF.) Layton's New Democrat's are ahead of the Liberals nationally and well within the margin of error in Ontario, jumping four points here over the weekend.

So how is the national Liberal campaign responding? By pretending that it isn't happening is how.

    Despite a surge of NDP support in Quebec and an apparent decline in Liberal support in Ontario, the head of the national Liberal campaign has informed top strategists the party will execute its original campaign plan even though there are reports of nervous party troops and indications Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff remains unpopular at the doorsteps in some regions of the country.

    In the aftermath of two public opinion polls that had by Tuesday found the NDP passing the Liberals nationally and surging past all three main parties to take the lead in voter preference in Quebec, a senior member of the party’s campaign in Ontario told The Hill Times that—other than strategic changes to its arsenal of attack ads and normal adjustments to campaigns in close riding races and swing ridings—national campaign director Gordon Ashworth told top levels of the Liberal team the battle plan remains the same.

    “Obviously the campaign team is engaged every day and so there are phone calls, but I can tell you Gordon Ashworth, who is in charge of the campaign, he put very aptly, ‘Some time ago we developed a plan, we put that plan in place and we’ve executed it well and we continue to execute the plan because it really is about bringing forward a platform that addresses the needs of middle-class Canadians, the average Canadian, and we’re not deviating from that,’” Jeff Kehoe, one of the party’s three co-chairs of the Ontario portion of the campaign, quoted Mr. Ashworth as telling the campaign overseers following the stunning events over the past week.

If the Liberal campaign is feeling what The Hill article quotes as a "feeling of serenity on the ground," they're in full-blown denial. Hitler knew that the jig was up by the time he was driven into the bunker, but Gordon Ashworth apparently doesn't.

Mr. Ashworth's strategy was always half-crazed and premised on his perception that voters are even dumber than I  think they are, which happens to be plenty. The strategy, as far as I can determine, was to run against the Harper record, unify the left-leaning vote and peel off enough soft Tory support to deny the Conservatives a majority. If the Conservatives had a reduced minority government and if the Grits picked up a dozen or so seats, they could then defeat the government in a confidence vote this spring and form an accord with the Layton New Democrats.

That was flawed to the point of absurdity because, as I've mentioned before, Harper's record is the Liberal record. Dion and Ignatieff kept the Conservative minority afloat several hundred times in the last five years. It appears that the voters concluded that if they absolutely must unify around an opposition party, it may as well be one that actually opposed something from time to time, which is how the NDP surge was born.

If the NDP displaces the Liberals as the Official Opposition, or even comes close to it, the Liberals are effectively finished. If Ignatieff winds up losing seats, especially in Toronto, he'll be beheaded by his own party on election night next Monday, which leaves the Grits leaderless and in the throes of a leadership campaign.

Assuming that there even is a Conservative minority (which is getting harder to do every day,) defeating them on a confidence motion would require the Governor General to decide whether to invite a coalition or an accord to assume government or to hold yet another election. That would require some kind of assurance that said coalition could hold for at least two years. I don't know how a leaderless Liberal Party can make such an assurance to David Johnston.

There are also large swaths of the Liberal Party that want nothing to do with the NDP, and that segment of the party can be expected to run for the leadership. Or there might be sufficient opposition in caucus to defeat the idea outright.

Barring a coalition or an accord, another election would utterly break a bankrupt Liberal Party and English Canada would be divided up between the NDP and the Tories, almost certainly resulting in a massive Conservative majority.

After spending weeks asking the question, no one has been able to tell me why Jack Layton would even want to get into bed with the Grits. As I've explained before, it isn't in his strategic interest. Harper's fear-mongering about a coalition is adorable, but it assumes that Layton is stupid enough to still be afraid of the Liberals at this point. He pretty clearly isn't, and seems to know that if he just waits a few months, the Grits will collapse all on their own, leaving him as the only credible alternative to the Tories.

Regardless of Monday's outcome, the Liberals won't be able to raise money (which is already a giant problem for them) or recruit halfway serious candidates (which they haven't focused all that much energy on anyway.) By Tuesday morning, anyone with any brains will see the future of the left in this country, and it isn't going to include the Liberals.

The Liberals who were behind or endorsed the merger or strategic cooperation talks last year never really thought through the consequences of what they were suggesting. Strategic cooperation, meaning that the two parties wouldn't run candidates against one another, would ruin both financially because they would be denied millions in the per-vote subsidy from Elections Canada.

Moreover, the merger idea was framed under the almost unbelievably arrogant Grit premise that the NDP would renounce all of their principles just to join a Liberal Party that was incapable of winning an election on their own and only got 28% of the vote in the previous campaign. And for their trouble, Jack Layton might have been named junior minister for dildo training, but only if he promised not to talk about dildos that much. It was such an insulting offer that it only could have come from a Liberal.

No, it had to come to pass this way. Even during their ascendancy, Reform-Canadian Alliance weren't so ******* haughty that they believed that they could merge with Progressive Conservative rump on their own terms. In fact, it was the Alliance that was crumbling, with a dozen of their members sitting as Independents because of Stockwell Day's reign of error. The Grits, on the other hand, honestly believe it is their natural birthright to govern this country, and they only grudgingly tolerate elections. There could never be a working agreement with the NDP so long as the Liberals thought that they had any kind of future at all.

Well, as of Monday, the window closes on that future. The Liberal Party of Canada will be halfway in the grave, and even they won't be so dumb as to not notice it. If these polls hold up for the next five days -  and there's now no reason to believe that they won't - the Grits will enter their final death spiral and likely won't survive the next election.

And you know what? I'm going to help bury them. I live in a riding where it doesn't matter who I vote for, and I've been denied my usual luxury of voting for an independent or minor party. So I'm going to do something that I never seriously thought I would.

I'm going to vote for the NDP.

[Technoviking]

For me, Joe Q Public, I would hope that my fellow Canadians would look to the TSX's nervousness about the NDP.  That has a direct threat/effect on my lower level of my Maslowian needs.  I mean, if corporation "A"'s shares bottom out, then my prices for my basic survival (food, heat, etc), go up.

[Kat Stevens]

For me, Joe Q Public, I would hope that my fellow Canadians would look to the TSX's nervousness about the NDP.  That has a direct threat/effect on my lower level of my Maslowian needs.  I mean, if corporation "A"'s shares bottom out, then my prices for my basic survival (food, heat, etc), go up.

Well that's just typical; what's in it for me?  Can't you see the bigger picture?  All the shiftless 3rd gen dole pineapples need to be taken care of too, ya know.  What about their right to sit on their arses watching their 62" plasma waiting for the cheque to roll in?  SOMEBODY has to pay for it, might as well be you.

[Rifleman62]

The Cdn media had a big role in this possible mess. Relentlessly demonizing Harper at every opportunity, ignoring the NDP policies other than the occasional feel good pieces about Jack, pushing Iggy.

The lack of ethics, professionalism, and untruths. Well, now it is going to possibly come back and bit Canada on the ***. A bunch of nobodys.

Stupid people in my Condo don't like Harper's eyes!!!!!