There was a public forum the other evening, here in Ottawa, at Saint Paul’s University. I did not attend; I took a look at the
sponsor, moderator and participants and decided that Charlotte Grey, alone, could not keep me from rushing the stage and throttling a few of them.
I listened, with a more than just half and ear, this morning and it confirmed, for me, the wisdom of staying home.
At the very end Jane Taber plus a few chimed in and said, “We/they/someone must
unite the left, unite the Liberals and NDP to bring balance to Canadian politics.”
I wonder if any of them have even half the brains the gods gave to green peppers.
Uniting the left – uniting the Liberals and NDP – is the fondest hope, the veritable
wet dream of all partisan Conservatives. The key to utterly and completely destroying the Liberals is to unite them with the NDP. That’s why the
coalition proposed by
Jack and Gilles and
Celine Stéphane Dion would, actually, have been a great thing for the Conservatives.
The reason is that the Liberals are
not a left wing party. They are, in the main, a centrist, even ever so slightly right of centre party. There is a big and very vocal and active
left wing but
most Liberal
voters trust their party to campaign left and govern right. Look at King, St Laurent, Pearson, Turner, Chrétien and Martin. None were on the
left and none pandered a whole lot to the hard left. Only Trudeau was, in most respects – except for his personal life, left of centre. If the Liberals were to
unite with the NDP then the centre and centre right majority would bolt.
Another big topic, to which the panel returned again and again, was some alternative to “first past the post (FPTP).”
I looked at the data from the last few elections; they are relatively consistent:
• 10% of Canadians – fully 40% of Québecers – vote
Bloc• 35%+ of Canadians vote Conservative;
• 6% of Canadians vote Green;
• 30%± of Canadians (more minus than plus more recently) vote Liberal;
• 15+ of Canadians vote NDP; and
• 1 or 2% of Canadians vote for independents and assorted fruitcakes.
Speaking broadly:
• The
Bloc’s vote is stagnant;
• The Conservative vote is rising, a bit, and a bit slowly;
• The Green vote is stagnant;
• The Liberal votes is falling, slowly; and
• The NDP vote rose, more than just a bit, in 2008, but that may be a
blip.
Using recent data I concluded that the First Past the Post system:
• Benefited –
o The
Bloc in Québec by 19 seats,
o The Conservatives in 6 of ten provinces by about 25 seats, and
o The Liberals in one province, (Newfoundlandf and Labrador) by two seats; and
• Penalized –
o The Conservatives in two provinces, by three seats,
o The Greens in two provinces, by two seats,
o The Liberals in five provinces, by nine seats,
o The NDP in seven provinces by 13 seats.
So, it is true that FPTP tends to help the party that, overall, gets the most votes, and (the
Bloc in Québec being excepted) tends to penalize lesser parties. Broadly the fewer votes you get, overall, the “worse” you will do proportionately.
I “constructed” a House of Commons basewd on pretty much
absolute proportional representations.
Guess what?
It produces a Conservative minority government with the Liberals in the official Opposition benches, the
Dippers as the thirds party, fewer
Blocistes and several new Green and Independent members.
The
proportional Conservative minority government is smaller (117 instead of 143 seats), the
proportional Liberal opposition is bigger (88 instead of 77 seats) and the NDP is much larger (55 rather than 37 seats). A simple Liberal/NDP
coalition can defeat the government but either the
Bloc or the NDP can combine with the Conservatives to outvote a coalition of the Liberals plus the other of the
Bloc or NDP. The Greens (15 seats!) are the spoilers, and they could combine with the Liberals and NDP to form a
majority – but one that would destroy the Liberal Party of Canada.
Edit: two typos